Sunday NFL Picks
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An NFL blowout, it never fails. You scroll over the NFL odds on Sunday and find an NFL game where a solid team is at least a 8 point favorite against a really bad team. You smile from thoughts of cashing in a winning ticket. Unfortunately, the better team stumbles through the game, gives up a late pointless score and wins by 5. Does this happen all too often? Today we are going to look at five bad NFL teams from the 2005 season to find out.
The teams we will look at are the Ravens, Raiders, Bills, Packers and Titans. These losing teams had a combined record of 23-57. Let’s start by taking a look at all games against winning teams. We are going to define winning teams as those teams that finished at least 10-6 last season. Remember, we are trying to find out what happens when solid teams play bad teams.
These teams had a combined 33 games against good teams, as per our definition. 17 of those games were at home and 16 on the road. A bad team won 2 of the 33 games. It’s interesting to note that both wins came in the last couple weeks of the season. 20 of the 33 games were won by 8 or more. Of those 20, 18 were “blowouts” of 10 or more points. Ten games ended up with a final score differential of at least 14 points.
So, let’s put a pretty bow on all of these stats. During the 2005 season when a solid team played a poor team, 93.9% of the time the better team won straight up. 60% of the time that better team won by 8 or more. Additionally, 30% of the time the game was long over before it started. 2005 was known as the year of favorites as they covered at almost a 60% clip. Keep these stats in mind the next time you go to the betting window, if the bookmakers keep undervaluing favorites in this new NFL market betting on underdogs could be a thing of the past.
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