Week 4 NFL Free Pick Article

Sunday afternoon’s match-up featuring the Carolina Panthers hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers promises to be an interesting game. Tampa should have no trouble winning it. The two teams stand tied atop the NFC South, both at 2-1 with Atlanta and New Orleans lagging behind at 0-3.
Two interesting facts to note are that the road team in this match up has won four of the last five meetings. The exception was last season when Tampa Bay was a shell of its true self.

The other note-worthy item is that since 2003 the team finishing in last place in the NFC South went on to win the division the following season. This does not have a direct affect on Sunday’s game, but leads one to believe that, if history has a say, the Bucs are for real.

Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme is listed as questionable for this game with a strained right arm, and did not practice on Thursday. Panthers’ head coach John Fox is known for not starting players who are not healthy enough to practice during the week.

If he is unable to play, former Texan QB David Carr will get to try his hand against a Bucs’ defense that is only allowing 12.3 points per game this season. That number sounds eerily similar to the points the Bucs were allowing in the not-so-distant past. Matching Carr against such a tough defense could spell disaster for Carolina, as Carr’s last four starts overall have seen just one touchdown compared to five interceptions.

The Buccaneers’ team rushing average is up almost 25 yards per game from 95.2 in 2006 to 119.7 this season.
The Panthers are 1-5 against the spread in their last six home games against a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games overall.
Also, the Panthers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Wait, you say, isn’t that bad? Not if Vegas knows it and adjusts the lines accordingly. The betting public doesn’t realize that Tampa Bay is not as far in the gutter as they seemed last season. Jeff Garcia’s leadership and some key additions on the defense have this team believing they can win again.

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