2009 Week 7 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

Despite a widespread lack of trust in quarterback Jake Delhomme, the Carolina Panthers have hit their stride and will physically demolish the Buffalo Bills, covering seven points. Delhomme can’t suck worse than “O-Town” if he doesn’t have the football.

      The Panthers ranked third in rushing yards last season and exploded last week at Tampa Bay, rushing 47 times for 262 yards. The Bills are currently dead last in the NFL against the run. It seems that John Fox and the Carolina coaching staff have learned their lesson. Their total rushing attempts in their three losses to open the season were 30, 25, and 16. Carolina has won both of its games following its bye week, totaling 32 and 47 rushes in those games. The difference between the 30 attempt game and the 32 attempt game was four interceptions by the O-Town guy.

      Delhomme has never finished a season with a rating of less than 80, nor has he ever thrown more interceptions than touchdowns over a full season. He currently has a rating of 56.8, which can be almost entirely attributed to his 4:10 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

      The Panthers dominated at home last season, going 8-0 straight up. That doesn’t mean that they’ll cover the spread, but they were 5-2-1 against the spread at home in 2008, which suggests that they should.

      Not only do the Bills have trouble stopping the run, but they’re also beat up. Six starters missed practice time during the week, including starting quarterback Trent Edwards. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick will start after completing 10 of 25 passes last week against the Jets. He’ll be counted on to keep the Bills in the game if they’re unable to stop Carolina backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, but his career 66.1 rating doesn’t inspire much confidence. The last time the Bills faced a run-dominated offense they were dominated by the run. The Dolphins ran for 250 yards on 45 carries in Miami and dominated the Bills 38-10. Edwards was unable to bring Buffalo back, competing just 14 of 26 passes with one touchdown and three interceptions.

      Bills head coach Dick Jauron is on the verge of losing his job, and the Panthers are on the verge of showing what earned them a first round bye in last season’s playoffs.

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