



Week 5 NFL Free Pick Article
By Adam Barone—Last week we made you look
smart in front of your friends by taking Baltimore as 5.5 point dogs
in Pittsburgh. This week you’ll look like a frickin’genius.
For whatever reason, the books are showing a ton of money on the Colts
going into Houston against a rising Texans team. If some of that money
is yours—kiss it goodbye. This is a prototypical “trap”
game, just like Baltimore/Pittsburgh.
The Colts are 2-9 ATS recently within the AFC South. The Texans have
covered the spread in their last four home games. This is also Houston’s
first home game of the year. They’ll be fired up.
Even if the Colts were at full strength I’d
be taking the Texans, and they’re not. They’ve started 1-2
with key injuries to Dallas Clark and Jeff Saturday on offense. The
lost of Bob Sanders is an extra slap in the face. He’s the engine
that makes their defense go, in case you just landed here from another
planet or happen to bet football without ever watching ESPN.
Rookie running back Steve Slaton could be the key to this game. He’s
poised for a break-out performance after 240 total yards and two touchdowns
in the two games since the bye week. The Colts have allowed 199.3 yards
per game on the ground this season, good for second to last. Only Detroit
is worse, and Detroit lost to a high school team last week.
Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson have had a tough start to the season, but it’s come against top notch competition. And a hurricane. Schaub got going last week against Jacksonville and will continue to roll this week.
The team names in this match-up bring a much larger perceived gap in ability than is actually there. Take Houston with confidence.
We’ve loved the
Texans since the preseason. See for yourself: NFL
Sleepers
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