Week 5 NFL Free Pick Article

By Adam Barone—Last week we made you look smart in front of your friends by taking Baltimore as 5.5 point dogs in Pittsburgh. This week you’ll look like a frickin’genius.

For whatever reason, the books are showing a ton of money on the Colts going into Houston against a rising Texans team. If some of that money is yours—kiss it goodbye. This is a prototypical “trap” game, just like Baltimore/Pittsburgh.

The Colts are 2-9 ATS recently within the AFC South. The Texans have covered the spread in their last four home games. This is also Houston’s first home game of the year. They’ll be fired up.

Even if the Colts were at full strength I’d be taking the Texans, and they’re not. They’ve started 1-2 with key injuries to Dallas Clark and Jeff Saturday on offense. The lost of Bob Sanders is an extra slap in the face. He’s the engine that makes their defense go, in case you just landed here from another planet or happen to bet football without ever watching ESPN.
Rookie running back Steve Slaton could be the key to this game. He’s poised for a break-out performance after 240 total yards and two touchdowns in the two games since the bye week. The Colts have allowed 199.3 yards per game on the ground this season, good for second to last. Only Detroit is worse, and Detroit lost to a high school team last week.

Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson have had a tough start to the season, but it’s come against top notch competition. And a hurricane. Schaub got going last week against Jacksonville and will continue to roll this week.

The team names in this match-up bring a much larger perceived gap in ability than is actually there. Take Houston with confidence.

We’ve loved the Texans since the preseason. See for yourself: NFL Sleepers

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