2009 Week 5 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

Ignore all the McDaniels versus Belichick hype. Look away from the popular “Denver hasn’t played anybody” mantra. Let go of false hopes of the 2007 Patriots returning. Broncos’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is the key to this game, and Denver will cover three points at home.

Ponder this before we dig deeper: The Broncos have started the season 4-0 for the sixth time in franchise history. Four of the other five Orange Crush teams played in the Super Bowl.
Their schedule to this point may have been weak, but a win is a win in the NFL. Every team in the league has talent, and anything can happen from week to week. The Broncos now have the confidence and unity of an undefeated team.

Now, if you’re done thinking “yeah, but,” the argument can be strengthened. Mike Nolan has transformed the Broncos’ defense from the NFL’s 29th best in 2008 (26th against aerial attacks), into the league’s second best overall in 2009. They trail only the Giants in total yards allowed per game. They’re third against the pass and fifth against the run.

Denver has allowed just two touchdowns on the season, and leads the league in yards allowed per play. They’re also first in turnover differential, with a plus-seven. Tom Brady’s proven that he’s still concerned about contact to his knee, and the Broncos’ Elvis Dumervil leads the league with eight sacks. Take from that what you will.

The argument that Denver hasn’t played anyone is weak. Carson Palmer has found the end zone in every game except the one against Denver. Cedric Benson has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in games against teams other than the Broncos. The Cowboys’ only loss before last week at Denver was a nail-biter against the powerful Giants. Dallas came into the game as the top rushing team in the league, but managed just 74 yards on the ground. Denver also played the Browns and Raiders, two teams that a good team would crush. Are scores of 27-6 and 23-3 satisfying? This is not a fluke. Denver is for real.

The battle between Tom Brady and Kyle Orton should prove to be a crucial aspect of this matchup. Despite Kyle Orton’s clear lack of elite talent, he’s 17-2 at home in his career as a starter. He’s also the only starting quarterback in the league without an interception this season.

Finally, though 2008 statistics may suggest otherwise, the Broncos have a significant home field advantage. This is their opportunity to prove themselves for real. Don’t miss the boat.

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