2009 Week 4 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

Analysis

Sunday’s most intriguing matchup features Drew Brees leading the league’s premier offense against Rex Ryan and the Jets’ stingy defense. Put your green on Gang Green.

A great defense always beats a great offense. It’s that simple.

Take notice: this Jets’ defense will challenge for the no. 1 ranking this season. It’s no fluke. They completely shut down both the Texans and Patriots in weeks one and two. The Texans ranked third in the league in yards last season with over 380 per game. Ryan’s “organized chaos” defense held them to 183 and no points. Houston’s only score came on a pick-six. Texans’ quarterback Matt Schaub had just 166 yards and an interception in that game, though he’s topped 300 yards in each of the two succeeding contests. He’s also thrown seven touchdown passes and just one interception since his meeting with the green gangsters. Tom Brady was also unsuccessful against the Jets in week two, failing to throw a touchdown pass and finishing with a 53.1 quarterback rating. He’s had quarterback ratings of 97.8 and 87.1 in weeks one and three respectively.

The height of these quarterbacks is also notable. Brady is listed at 6-foot-4 and Schaub at 6-foot-5, while Brees is generously advertised at an even 6 feet. The Jets will undoubtedly look to exploit Brees’ lack of vertical stature by applying direct pressure and getting hands in his face.

Brees faced Rex Ryan’s scheme in 2006 when Ryan was the defensive coordinator for the Ravens. He was picked off three times and lost a fumble. The argument can be made that the Jets and Ravens have different players, but the Jets are talented and the scheme is the same.
On the other side of the ball, expect the Jets to run, run, run, and run some more to keep Brees and company off the field. Jets’ running back Thomas Jones has averaged 4.2 yards per carry against the Saints in his career, while the Saints have never seen his backfield mate Leon Washington.

Riding the Trends

Even the most casual football fan knows that the Saints offense is impressive. They frequently cover as favorites. A group of trends supports betting against them though:
The Jets have covered the spread the last five times that they were road underdogs against a team with a winning record.

They’ve also covered in the last four games in which they were road underdogs, and in the last five in which they were underdogs.
Don’t underestimate the Jets and their desire to prove that they’re for real. Bet on Gang Green.

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