2009 Week 3 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

Week three of the NFL season features a matchup of ground-game juggernauts under the Metrodome roof. The 49ers are getting seven points on the road, which will prove to be too many. Put your money on them as the underdog.

The Vikings had trouble early with the Lions last week. They surprisingly allowed 83 rushing yards to Kevin Smith running behind a sub-par offensive line. Smith ran hard and made the most of his 24 carries. In week one the Vikings allowed Browns’ running back Jamal Lewis to average 5.2 yards per tote.

Cleveland’s defense is so bad though, that the Browns were behind for most of the game. Lewis finished with only 11 carries, limiting the overall damage.

The Vikings will face their stiffest test of the season this week—stud San Francisco runner Frank Gore. Gore followed up a slow start in week one by exploding last week against Seattle for 207 yards on just 16 carries. Gore has played two games in his career against the Vikings. In those games he’s carried the ball 35 times for 109 yards. His combined 13 catches for 85 yards in those games suggest that he’ll be at the focal point of the 49ers’ attack this weekend. In his career, Gore has averaged an impressive 4.6 yard per carry on the road, 4.5 on turf, and 4.9 indoors. He’s also scored 12 career touchdowns in September, one less than October, November, and December combined.

The Niners probably haven’t found their quarterback of the future, but Shaun Hill will certainly do as the quarterback of the present for Mike Singletary’s squad. He’s extremely dependable, with a 90.1 quarterback rating in 15 career games, including 87.8 in 2009. Hill’s also not thrown a single interception yet. He’s not very explosive and has an average throwing arm, but doesn’t make poor decisions or turn the ball over. He’ll find the open receiver and defer to Gore.

Vikings’ star running back Adrian Peterson is probable for the game with a minor back injury. It’s not likely to have a huge effect, but he’ll have his work cut out for him against the 49ers’ third ranked rush defense.

As usual, there are some enticing trends behind this pick. The 49ers are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last four games against teams with winning records, 4-0 in their last four as an underdog, 4-1 in their last five as a road underdog, and 5-1-1 in their last seven overall. The Vikings are 1-4 in their last five games at home.

The Vikings are good, but don’t be caught off guard when the Niners prove to be up to the challenge.

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