2009 Week 2 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

The Lions, that’s right, the Detroit Lions, will cover the ten-point spread this week at home against the Vikings. No, no one here has been drinking Pine Sol. Ten points is a big number in the NFL, and it will prove to be too much in this division rivalry.

Minnesota is still trying to mesh offensively. Brett Favre threw the ball only 21 times against the Browns in week one, and finished the game with just 110 yards passing. Clearly the Browns’ Steel Curtain had a tear in it. Vikings’ receiver Bernard Berrian is recovering from a hamstring injury and was targeted just twice in the game. He had zero catches. The more Favre throws, the more chances he’ll take, and the better the chances that he’ll throw an interception. That’s what he does. He’s old Jay Cutler.

Obviously the Vikings’ attack will be centered on Adrian Peterson. Well, probably. The jury is still out on him. The Lions were dead last against the run last season, but now have linebackers Larry Foote and Julian Peterson lining up alongside Ernie Sims. The new guys actually know how to tackle. Last season’s linebacking corps featured Sims, Scrappy-Doo, and Princess Toadstool. That’s an upgrade.

Interestingly, Adrian Peterson led the league in fumbles in 2008, and the Lions were second in the NFC in forcing fumbles. That almost sounds like an advantage for the Lions, huh? Who’s drinking the Pine Sol now?

Other things that sound good for the Lions include the matchup of freakish receiver Calvin Johnson against the Vikings’ 18th ranked pass defense in 2008, and running back Smith seeing the second most targets in the league among running backs in week one. Smith will have no shot at running inside against Vikings’ defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, but he’s a good outside runner and pass catcher.

There are even some fancy numbers to back up our pick. The Vikings have only covered twice in their past ten games against the NFC, and once in their last seven against the NFC North. The Lions, on the other hand, have covered in their last four games against the NFC North. PLUS, these two teams played twice in 2008. Minnesota won both games by a TOTAL, yes, TOTAL, of six points. That’s less than ten.

Look and feel like a badass with a huge pair of brass balls and bet the Lions this weekend.

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