Week 16 NFL Free Pick Article

By Adam Barone-- Good news, gambling junkies: We’re not recommending the 49ers game this week!

Rejoice.

The Packers are getting four points in prime time at Chicago. The line opened at 4.5 and has dropped, despite the fact that the Bears are getting most of the bets.

Yes, the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot, but this is one of the fiercest rivalries in football. More importantly, the Packers pummeled the snot out of the Bears 37-3 in week 11. That was just over a month ago, and there’s little chance that they’ve forgotten about the weakness they found in Chicago’s defense.

Ryan Grant had 25 carries for 145 yards, and Aaron Rodgers went 23 for 30 for 227 yards and two scores in that game. Kyle Orton was 13 for 26 and looked like he had no idea what the hell was going on. The Bears had all of their key players on defense in that game and were flat-out embarrassed.

Of course, this game is in Chicago, not Green Bay. That is an important factor.

It’s important because the Packers have covered the spread seven of the last nine times they’ve played there.

The Pack is also 5-0 in their last five against the NFC North and 4-1 in their last five as an underdog. They’re even 9-3-1 in their last 13 as a road dog and 13-5-1 in their last 19 road games.

Basically, gamblers have been underselling the Pack in tough spots lately.

The trends in this game are very intriguing. The Bears are 4-9-1 in their last 14 games as a home favorite. They’re also 2-6-1 in their last nine games versus a team with a losing road record.

This line should have gone up, not down. Vegas knows something. They usually do.

Also keep in mind that you could make a case that Aaron Rodgers deserved to make the Pro Bowl over Eli Manning. He may feel like he has something to prove.

There’s a good chance that the Packers win this game outright.

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