2009 Week 10 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

There are some truly awful, completely talentless teams in the NFL this season. Believe it or not, the Chiefs are not one of them. They’ll prove that by going into Oakland and covering the 2.5 points on Sunday.

Dumping the baggage that was running back Larry Johnson should be a big weight off the chest of the team as a whole. Johnson was released this week for stretching out his slew of idiotic behavior for longer than the team could handle. Jamaal Charles and Kolby Smith will split the workload, and both have the talent to be quality NFL players. Neither projects as a workhorse, but the passing game has plenty of talent and there’s enough chance that the team will be trailing that the lack of a 20-carry back shouldn’t be an issue. Johnson has been the “face of the franchise” for years, but that title has brought more pressure than results lately. His 2.7 yards per carry on the season proved to be nothing more than a lightning rod for negative attention.

The Raiders have some talent of their own, but are proving to be the most inept franchise in all of professional sports. Quarterback JaMarcus Russell’s 48.3 quarterback rating for the season is nothing short of pathetic. He’s completed 48.4 percent of his passes this year, and can’t get the ball to a receiver unless both men are standing perfectly still. Running back Darren McFadden should return this week from knee surgery, but a torn meniscus isn’t something one can return from right away like it never happened. Maybe that will be good for McFadden though, who was averaging a puke-worthy 36.5 yards per game with just one touchdown before the surgery.

The situation here is simple: The Chiefs are trending slightly upward and have a number of trends in their favor, while the Raiders are completely clueless. Kansas City has been liberated by the dumping of the dead weight that was Johnson, while the Raiders still have to deal with head coach Tom Cable’s domestic issues. He beats woman. It’s classy.

The on-field trends that support the Chiefs include such convincing leanings as six victories in their last six appearances in Oakland, the underdog covering in the last five matchups, and the road team covering in 18 of the teams’ last 26 meetings. The road team has also won all of the last six matchups in this series. Even more convincing, the Chiefs have covered 13 of their last 19 road games, and were underdogs in every one of them.

If that’s not enough, let’s look at Oakland. No, the fact that they’re coming off a bye doesn’t help them. They haven’t covered a single time following a bye week in six seasons. They’ve also failed to cover in nine straight games as a home favorite.

What else do you need? Kansas City is the play.

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