Week 1 NFL Free Pick Article

By Adam Barone—Looking to repeat last week’s success, when East Carolina covered against Virginia Tech, this week’s pick is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at New Orleans.

We hope you’re not saying, “Wait a minute, I really like the Saints to win the division. I think they’ll cover three easily.”

Yes, on the surface that’s the obvious way to go. Let’s start with the simple (though very convincing) stuff—the trends: The Buccaneers have won the last five times they’ve been to New Orleans. They’ve also covered five of the last six times they’ve played the Saints, regardless of the location.

If that’s not enough, the underdog has covered in nine of the last twelve meetings. Oh, and the road team has covered in eight of their last ten meetings.

Need more convincing?

Tampa Bay was 5-1 against the rest of the NFC South last season. They were also first in the league against the pass. That really sours your visions of Shockey, Colston, and Meacham running all over the field in some sort of Drew Brees-led aerial assault, doesn’t it?

Meacham is still essentially a rookie. Chill a bit on him until he learns how to run a route against a first team defense.

The Saints have been practicing in Indianapolis this week because of Gustav. Making plans to avoid the hurricane and flying around instead of focusing on their game will almost certainly take a toll on the Saints.

Running back Deuce McAllister is questionable for the game after two off-season knees surgeries. If he’s not ready to go, the Saints will be forced to rely on Pierre Thomas, a second-year undrafted free agent, to compliment Reggie Bush.

The Saints still have a lot to prove, so don’t bet your Hyundai on them to win the NFC just yet.

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