2009 Week 1 NFL Free Pick

By Adam Barone

The Vikings are the safest play this week, and will beat the Browns convincingly. Let’s start the season off with money in the bank. Normally chasing points with a road team in the NFL can make you want to bash yourself in the face with a meat tenderizer, but your chiseled mug will be safe here, hot stuff.

Not only are the Vikings simply much better, but the Browns have lost on opening weekend for four straight seasons. They’ve also failed to cover in their last five home games, their last six games overall, and their last eight games on grass. The Vikings have covered in five of their last seven opening weekend games.

Though he could still suddenly decide to retire at any moment before the game on Sunday, Brett Favre forces defenses to respect the Vikings passing game. Percy Harvin helps too. Last season the Vikings ranked 25th in the league in passing. Between Tarvaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte, the Purple Scandinavians passed for just over 3,000 yards with 21 touchdowns. Each quarterback completed 59.1 percent of his passes. Though Favre threw for only 22 touchdown passes last season with the Jets, his completion percentage was almost 66. Even an old Favre will get more respect from defenses than either Jackson or Frerotte. The argument can be made that the Vikings’ running attack opened things up for the quarterbacks in 2008, but not the other way around. In 2009 the Favre-led passing attack could make Adrian Peterson and the already explosive running game even more potent.

Oh, and, if you’re wondering, the Browns finished 28th against the run last season even with monstrous defensive tackle Shaun Rogers playing all 16 games. They were worse than the Broncos.

Favre hasn’t faced the Browns since 2005 when he was with the Packers, but the last time he saw them he roasted their secondary for 342 yards. Okay, so it wasn’t exactly the same team, but that certainly doesn’t hurt the point that the Browns are screwed.

Naming Brady Quinn the starter will probably be good for the Browns in the long run, but not for this week. Think about it. Quinn is an inexperienced, accurate passer with an average arm—the type of quarterback that needs a productive running game and a quality tight end in order to be successful. He’ll have neither this week, as the Vikings are the league’s best run defense facing an aging Jamal Lewis, and Kellen Winslow is now with Tampa Bay.

Look for Favre to do just enough to allow Adrian Peterson to run wild, and Jared Allen and the defense to make Quinn’s day very long.

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