NFC SOUTH 2009 Season Preview

By Adam Barone

In an NFL where anything could happen, you’re looking at one of the divisions that idea is magnified. There are three dynamic, exciting teams in the NFC South, and the Buccaneers aren’t one of them. Anything could happen here, and the attention will be on Matt Ryan, DeAngelo Williams, and the Saints defense. Barring any craziness, this is probably what things will end up looking like:

1. Carolina Panthers (12-4): The Panthers’ running game was simply dominant last season. They were third in rushing yards per game, but figure to rise to the top in the coming season. Rookie back Jonathan Stewart was hampered by a toe injury most of the year, but is healthy this season. He carried the ball 184 times and found pay-dirt nine of them. Williams was the big story, setting career highs with 273 carries for 1,515 yards and 18 rushing touchdowns. Look for these two to continue in their roles and the offense to remain run-heavy with the occasional deep ball to Steve Smith.
The changes on both sides of the football were negligible, and adjustments in scheming are expected to be the same. The defense ranked in the middle of the pack in just about every imaginable category last season, and finished 15th in yards per game allowed. Expect more grinding it out with the backs and playing keep-away, as well as another division title.

2. Atlanta Falcons (10-6): The Falcons’ future seemed like it couldn’t be any gloomier heading into the 2008 campaign. Rookie quarterback Ryan and free agent running back Michael Turner made all of Atlanta forget about that Vick guy. Turner carried the ball a ridiculous 376 times and found the end zone 17, certainly earning his money. Ryan played off of Turner’s success, throwing for over 3,400 yards as a rookie, and finishing with an 87.7 quarterback rating. Tight end Tony Gonzalez was added in the offseason to give Ryan another weapon, and could be the key to Ryan’s seemingly inevitable breakout.
Seven of the Falcons’ eight draft picks were used to shore up the league’s 24th ranked defense, and former Jaguar linebacker Mike Peterson was added to replace the departed Keith Brooking.
Even with plenty of room for improvement from Ryan, the offense still finished ranked sixth overall and the team made the playoffs. If Ryan takes the leap forward that he’s expected to and the defense is even marginally better, this team could steal the division and go deep into the playoffs.

3. New Orleans Saints (10-6): The Saints have had and are expected to still have the top ranked offense in the league, though there are some concerns. They finished with the highest average for total yards despite Reggie Bush and Marques Colston both missing significant time with injuries. Both had surgery in the offseason, as did receiver Lance Moore, and all should be healthy for the season. With Deuce McAllister gone, Pierre Thomas should see an expanded role in the offense.
The concern is the defense. Saints games are always exciting, as they ranked first in points per game, and seventh-worst in points per game allowed. Former Jaguars defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will take over in the same position in New Orleans, and try to improve a squad that hasn’t finished better than 23rd since 2006. Cornerback Malcom Jenkins was drafted, and safety Darren Sharper was signed as the first steps toward that improvement. If the revamping of the defense works, the Saints also have a shot at the playoffs and the division crown.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Well, this is the easy pick in the division. The Bucs are the worst team. Jon Gruden was shown the door in what was, frankly, an unintelligent, white flag-waiving move that eyes the somewhat-distant future. Tampa Bay is now in rebuilding mode, and former defensive backs coach Raheem Morris is its head coach. Jeff Garcia, Warrick Dunn, Joey Galloway, and Derrick Brooks are out. Kellen Winslow, Byron Leftwich, and Derrick Ward are in.
The offensive line is young and promising, and will run a zone blocking scheme similar to the one Ward was so successful in while with the Giants. Leftwich will probably start, but the job could also go to Luke McCown or first round pick Josh Freeman. Freeman is similar to Ben Roethlisberger with his size and athletic ability, but probably isn’t NFL-ready just yet.
Long-time defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin is gone, with Jim Bates taking over. The Bucs will continue to run a similar scheme, but there will be less Tampa-2 type zone coverage on the outside. Young defensive end Gaines Adams could have a big year, but the Bucs won’t.

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