The Eagles; Boom or Bust

The Philadelphia Eagles head into the 2009-10 season as one of the most talked about teams in the NFC. The defending NFC East Champs were one defensive stop away from heading back to the Super Bowl last season, but fell short and left the Philly fans unfulfilled yet again. The media had the entire off-season to rant and rave about what could have been, and how the defense, which has always been known as the heart and sole of this franchise, let the city down when it was needed most.

As the team prepared for the NFL draft, there were rumors that the team would use their first round pick on Knoshon Moreno, a stud running back out of Georgia who would have been the perfect compliment to the ever so fragile Brian Westbrook. Instead Moreno was gone by the time the Birds picked, so the team used their pick on wideout Jeremy Maclin. Hey, Eagles fans just had to be happy that Andy Reid actually used the pick, and didn’t trade out of the first round which he has been prone to do during his tenure. The team followed up the Maclin pick by landing running back LaSean McCoy, and a nice tight end in Cornelius Ingram, who by the way is done for the year already with a torn ACL. Adding these three rooks to an NFC East Championship team has had the city buzzing and talking Super Bowl. Well Philly fans, I hope you enjoyed the World Series Parade last year, because that’s about all the celebrating you will be doing.

I’m not sold on the Eagles like the national media is. And let me explain why. Last year the Birds were 10-6 ATS during the regular season, and 9-7 SU. Bettors look at that 10-6 ATS record and factor in the additions the team made this off-season, and they begin to drool. Not so fast..... Of those 10 wins last year against the spread, they beat Cleveland, St. Louis, San Francisco, Seattle, getting my drift? Oh let’s not forget they Won straight up on the road against the Giants in early December as a 6.5 point DOG. Oh how you all have short memories.... A guy by the name of Plaxico Burress didn’t play that game because he had a bullet in his leg. That game began the beginning of the end for the Giants who collapsed without their number one wideout. So bottom line is this team beat up on a bunch of bottom tier teams, and in my book their only quality wins against the spread came against Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Dallas (who they covered against twice, and that’s not easy).

Before you run to the betting window this season to bet on the Birds, I want you to factor in the following:

* Donovan McNabb - Did we all forget that this guy one was series away from being benched for the remainder of the season for a youngster named Kevin Kolb? Had Kolb not come in and thrown a PICK SIX in that Ravens game, McNabb may never get the chance to get back on the field to beat up on the Arizona Cardinals on Thanksgiving Night. McNabb did stay healthy last season playing all 16 games, the first time since 2003 that this happened. Are you counting on that happening again? I hope not. Him being healthy for 16 games was more like a miracle then the norm. He also only tossed 23 touchdowns last year, a far cry from the 31 he tossed in just 15 games back in 2004 when he had a guy by the name of Terrell Owens on the team. But the long and short of it is that McNabb didn’t light the league on fire last year, in fact, he did far from it. The fans and media screamed and shouted for Kolb after McNabb went into Cincy and posted a tie, and actually admitted he didn’t know the game could actually end without a winner. Clearly a guy I want to be putting my hard earned money on this year.....I don’t think so.

* Brian Westbrook - Was he even a factor down the stretch last year? He clearly wasn’t the same guy that Philly fans have grown to love. Bwest still hasn’t played an entire season in his NFL career, and last year he saw his production basically fall off a cliff. He managed just 233 rushing attempts which wasn’t close to the 278 he put up in 2007. He also hauled in just 54 balls out of the backfield for 402 yards, which left him 36 catches and 369 yards off his 2007 receiving numbers. Look, I know that Reid was trying to limit Westbrook’s touches last season because all the injuries are clearly taking their toll on him, but this guy just isn’t the same running back. And before you jump up and down screaming about rookie LaSean McCoy, let me fill you in on something. No Eagles rookie running back has rushed for more than former Bird Correll Buckhalter who posted 586 rushing yards back in 2001 as a rookie, breaking a record that was set by Keith Byars back in 1986. So you get my point..McCoy isn’t coming into Philly and making himself a household name overnight.

* Wide Receivers – I actually happen to be a big fan of Jeremy Maclin, and think the team got the right guy, but history says I am wrong. Names like Freddie Mitchell (or FredEx if you prefer) and Reggie Brown come to mind as former high draft picks which turned out to be nothing short of busts for the Birds at the wide receiver position. Last year’s rookie DeSean Jackson actually had a nice season for a youngster posting 62 catches for just under 1,000 yards, but he is still a young kid who has a ton to learn in this league. Both he and Maclin are going to be counted on big time this season to be the threats on offense now that Westbrook has tailed off some. God help the Birds if McNabb goes down and Kolb has to throw to these young guys. That could spell for a long season. Trust me I know that McNabb isn’t Mr. Accurate, but at least he is a veteran who can read defenses, and the youngsters can look up to.

* Offensive Line/ Defense – It is no secret that the offensive line will miss a guy like Jon Runyan and let’s not forget Shawn Andrews, who is still deciding whether he wants to play football. The recent addition of Jason Peters from Buffalo is nothing to write home about. This guy was a sieve last year and part of the reason Trent Edwards was laying on his back half the game. Needless to say, the offensive line is one of the weak spots on this team, and that spells trouble. If you don’t know what the Eagles defense has gone through during this off-season, you better just keep your money in your pocket because your clearly living on another planet. The heart and sole of this team (not just the defense) Brian Dawkins was forced to sign in Denver, and the mastermind behind the defense for the past decade, Jim Johnson passed away from cancer. Factor in an unhappy Sheldon Brown, and you have a recipe for disaster. And I would be silly not to mention starting middle linebacker Stewart Bradley, who was supposed to be the center of this defense has been lost for the season. But no worries Joe Mays is slated to take his place. He has all of one year under his belt and a whopping ZERO tackles to his name. Don’t worry Birds fans, at least they say he looks good in practice.

The bottom line for Philly is that they are going to be a boom or bust team in 2009-10, and I would bet on the latter. Their defense is surely going to be weaker without guys like Dawkins and Johnson around, and I don’t care that Denver overpaid the guy. This is a team that for the most part stayed healthy last season, and that was a first. Should one of their veteran stars go down (i.e. McNabb, Westbrook) I just don’t think they have the depth and experience to compete with the rest of the NFC. I expect that Baltimore, Chicago, Dallas, and New York will all be in the race as we come to December, and call me crazy, but I even think the 49ers will benefit from a full training camp under Mike Singletary. They did win five of their last seven under the guy.

Enjoy the season, and remember I told you so, when the Eagles turn out to be one of the biggest busts in the NFC.

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