College Football Gambling
Using College Football Offensive Stats to make smart college football gambles.
Do stats matter in college football? Every season we see countless programs come out that try to make college football spread predictions based on statistical performance. Whether it’s rushing yards, passing yards, points per game, or other offensive stats, these programs claim to be able to win. In the NFL, many statistical handicappers claim to do fairly well. However, college is a different animal. Should we even be concerned with offensive stats when deciding what team to support?
I am going to give you the passing and rushing stats for three teams in 2005 and we will use them to determine some interesting things when college football gambling. Team one had an average of 168 rushing yards and 228 passing yards per game. Team two had an average of 272 rushing yards and 116 passing yards per game. Team three had an average of 212 rushing yards and 277 passing yards per game. Can you pick out the winning team in that mix?
On the surface, team three looks like the winner, because they had great production in the running and passing game. Team two appears to be just above average and team one looks like the worst of the bunch. Well, team three was Washington State. They were 4-7 last season despite rolling up bit numbers on offense. Team two was West Virginia. They were 11-1, were a favorite team to bet on by Ace's NCAA Handicappers, and won the Big East last season. Finally, team one was Wisconsin. They were 10-3 and won the Capital One bowl.
You could go over 100 college Division IA teams and not be able to tell anything about their 2005 performance by looking over offensive stats. Unlike the NFL, college football is a roller coaster of talent. That’s one of the reasons why it can be a little tougher to handicap until you get the feel of the schools.
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