AFC WEST 2009 Season Preview

By Adam Barone

The AFC West is one of the least predictable divisions in the league this season. The Chargers should run away with it, but the Chiefs, Broncos, and yes, even the Raiders, all have some talent. All three of them are also likely to be among the league’s worst, so the Chargers don’t have too much to worry about. In the end things are likely to end up looking something like this:

1. Chargers (12-4): Quarterback Philip Rivers broke out in a big way in 2008, leading the league in both touchdown passes (34) and quarterback rating (105.5). LaDainian Tomlinson is now 30, and has missed just one game in his entire eight-year NFL career. Last season was the first in which he failed to reach 300 carries (292), mostly due to a nagging toe injury. Tomlinson is healthy heading into this season, and has a new three-year contract. Expect the offense to be well-balanced and extremely effective.
The defense was a major disappointment in 2008, as it dropped from 10th overall in 2006 to 25th last season. Ron Rivera took over as the coordinator midway through last season, and will have linebacker Shawne Merriman back this year after he missed 15 games in 2008. Rookie linebacker Larry English will add depth to the linebacking corps, which could be one of the league’s best if it’s fully healthy.

2. Chiefs (6-10): Things were really starting to get ugly in Kansas City, and after a 2-14 finish last season it was time for wholesale changes. Scott Pioli comes over from the Patriots to be the new general manager, and he hired former Cardinals’ offensive coordinator Todd Haley to be the team’s head coach. Pioli traded a 2009 second round pick to the Patriots for quarterback Matt Cassel, and then traded star tight end Tony Gonzalez to the Falcons for a 2010 second round pick. It will be the Cassel/Dwayne Bowe show this season, because running back Larry Johnson looks to be nearing the end of his career.
Former Cardinals’ defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast followed Haley to the Chiefs, and will be the new defensive coordinator. They’ll switch to his hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme, which was not very effective in Arizona. The Chiefs also lack the personnel to play the 3-4, so expect some trouble in the first season. Linebackers Mike Vrabel and Zach Thomas were added, along with rookie defenseive end Tyson Jackson—the third overall pick.

3. Broncos (5-11): Long-time Broncos’ head coach Mike Shanahan was fired following an 8-8 2008, and was replaced by two men: Brian Xanders—now the general manager, and Josh McDaniels—now the head coach. Jay Cutler was traded to the Bears, with Kyle Orton and three 2009 draft picks coming in return, and Orton will be the starting quarterback. A load of running backs were brought in to play in a platoon similar to the one McDaniels used in New England. First, Correll Buckhalter, J.J. Arrington, and LaMont Jordan were signed, then former Georgia Bulldog back Knowshon Moreno was drafted 12th overall. Don’t expect any to get a particularly large share of the pie, as they’ll serve as a unit to supplement the passing game.
Things fell apart for the Broncos defense last season, as they plummeted to 29th overall, and couldn’t stop anyone on the ground. They allowed 146.1 rushing yards per game, sixth worst in the league. That led to the firing of defensive coordinator Bob Slowik, who is being replaced by Mike Nolan. Nolan will run that increasingly popular 3-4 defense, and now has former Browns’ linebacker Andra Davis and former Eagles’ safety Brian Dawkins to make his job easier. Going into this season, the Broncos are the definition of a “boom or bust” team.

4. Raiders (4-12): Oh, the Raiders. What can we say about the Raiders? They do have some talent on offense, but JaMarcus Russell has not only a ridiculous name, but also a pathetic 73.9 career quarterback rating. He has plenty of physical tools, but has a lot of work to do if he’s going to prove to anyone that he can be an NFL quarterback. Veteran Jeff Garcia was signed to push him, and may steal his job.
The running game is the strength of the entire team, and has finished in the top ten two seasons in a row. Darren McFadden averaged 4.4 yards per carry last season, his rookie season, but injuries caused him to see only 113 carries. He’s expected to be healthy for the coming season, and be the feature back.
The defense also has some individual stars, but has struggled as a unit. The run defense was second-to-last each of the last two seasons, and the defense as a whole finished 27th last season. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is one of the best in the league, and linebackers Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard are quality defenders, but can’t do it all by themselves.
Tom Cable, now officially the head coach, has limited prior head coaching experience. That’s a bad thing for a team that needs plenty of coaching. If Jeff Garcia takes over at quarterback relatively early, there’s a chance that the Raiders could be respectable this season, but don’t count on it.

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