AFC South

Don’t Mess with Texas

By Adam Barone

Injuries and age in Indianapolis meet talent and drive in Houston to score the Texans their first ever division title.
Chris Johnson and the Titans will have something to say about the outcome, but no one can understand what Johnson is saying anyway.
Seriously. Find a video of him on YouTube. It’s gibberish.

Houston Texans (12-4): The Texans’ inability to defend has always been overshadowed by their offensive dominance. That may not be the case this year.
Houston brought in Wade Phillips to reconstruct the defense, which ranked 29th in scoring, dead last against the pass and allowed a league-high 40 red zone touchdowns last season. He’ll instill a 3-4 scheme, featuring rookie first round pick J.J. Watt at defensive end and former rush end Mario Williams at outside linebacker. Phillips has a history of significantly improving defenses right away, so expect to see a difference.
The offense ranked ninth in scoring, seventh in rushing and fourth through the air last season and brings back all its parts. League-leading rusher Arian Foster topped 1,600 yards and scored 16 times while catching 66 passes for over 600 yards and two scores. He’ll be spelled some by Ben Tate, whom the team traded up last season’s draft to obtain but lost for the year to injury. Tate has looked fantastic so far in the preseason.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, this figures to be the Texans’ first winning season.

Indianapolis Colts (9-7): Peyton Manning’s recovery from offseason neck surgery is the only thing the Colts care about right now. There are questions regarding whether or not he’ll play in Week 1, and no team depends more on one player than the Colts do on Manning.
Indianapolis ranked first in passing in 2010 with 288.1 yards per game, despite missing both Dallas Clark and Austin Collie for significant time.
The Colts were fourth overall in scoring despite both Joseph Addai and Donald Brown failing to top 500 yards rushing. Former Syracuse running back Delone Carter was drafted to help on short yardage after Brown, Addai and Mike Hart combined for a total of seven touchdowns.
Manning will be well protected when he’s able to return. The Colts allowed just 16 sacks in ‘10 and drafted Boston College offensive tackle Anthony Castonzo in the first round.
The Colts chances of making a title run are dwindling fast and may have already run out.

Tennessee Titans (6-10): Head coach Jeff Fisher’s reliability and consistency are out in favor of Mike Munchak, question marks, and concern.
Headaches Randy Moss (retired) and Vince Young (free agent) left town, but stud tailback Chris Johnson is still looking for a new contract while receiver Kenny Britt figures to have earned a suspension.
Munchak will feature the run like Fisher, but new starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck may make him more comfortable putting the ball in the air than his departed predecessors, Young and Kerry Collins would have. Hasselbeck will keep the seat warm for first round pick Jake Locker, who figures to be the team’s future.
Tennessee ranked 17th in both scoring and rushing offensively in ‘10, while placing 25th among aerial attacks, so change is welcome. There’s room for improvement on defense too, after placing 29th in passing yards allowed (252.0). That unit was also 15th in points against, allowing 21.2 per game, and fourth-worst in 3rd down conversion rate against (43%).
Pro Bowl defensive end Jason Babin left via free agency, while former Buccaneers linebacker Barrett Ruud was signed. Linebacker Akeem Ayers, the team’s second round pick from UCLA, should add depth at linebacker.
Munchak and the Titans figure to struggle in a transition year.

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13): The Jags say that Maurice Jones-Drew’s surgically repaired knee will be fine to start the season. He’s logged a total of 611 carries in the past two seasons combined, though, so there’s reason to be skeptical.
Jacksonville did finish third in rushing with 149.7 yards per game in ‘10, but Jones-Drew’s understudy, Rashad Jennings contributed 84 carries for 459 yards—an impressive 5.5 yards per tote.
The passing game was 27th overall and lost star target Mike Sims-Walker to the Rams, so there’s not a lot of cause for optimism. Rookie first round pick Blaine Gabbert out of Missouri is likely to overtake steady but boring David Garrard at quarterback, though his receiving corps is very limited.
The defense added former Bills’ linebacker Paul Posluszny with the hope that he’d help them turn down the “suck,” but he won’t be able to do it on his own. The team ranked in the low 20’s in every significant defensive category in ‘10 and didn’t draft anyone on that side of the ball until the fourth round.