2010 NFL Free Pick Week 1

By Adam Barone

The young, dynamic, up-and-coming Detroit Lions will prove to be a tough challenge for the Chicago Bears in week one and will cover the 6.5 point spread.

Detroit's struggles in recent seasons are no secret. The Lions have won just two games over the past two years. They haven't won a road game since October 28, 2007.

Ironically, that win came at Soldier Field against Lovie Smith's Bears.

The key players on each team are almost entirely different from their '07 counterparts, but expecting the lowly Lions to march into Chicago and steal a win against Smith's defense is certainly within reason. It has happened before.

Even if they're unable to win the game, the road team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five meetings between these teams. The underdog is also 15-7 against the spread in their previous 22 contests.

Further trends suggest a Lions cover.

They've handled an opening week spread five of the last seven seasons. They Bears, conversely, have covered just one spread in their last five home games and two spreads in their last nine games overall.

Lions' second year quarterback Matthew Stafford could be primed for a breakout season with rookie running back Jahvid Best, free agent additions Nate Burleson and Tony Scheffler, and a fully healthy Calvin Johnson at his disposal.

Stafford played in just 10 games last season, but flashed the skills that made him the top pick in the 2009 draft.

Aside from a 422 torching of the Cleveland secondary in a 38-37 shootout in week 11, Stafford's best performance of his rookie campaign came in week four at Chicago. The rifle-armed rookie completed 24 of 36 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown.

The highlight of the game for Stafford was a 45 yard pass to Johnson, who hammered Chicago's weak zone defense for 133 total receiving yards.

Best's dynamic running ability will keep defenses honest all season and create passing lanes for Stafford. Expect the Bears to struggle to stop Best, as they ranked 23rd against the run a season ago, allowing 126.4 yards per contest.

Chicago's offensive line is a major concern heading into the season. Four of the five positions on the line have a new starter. Center Olin Kreutz is the only member of the group providing stability.

Questions on the offensive line are the last thing that any Mike Martz offense wants.

Martz's scheme invites sacks. His first seasons in Detroit and San Francisco have yeilded 63 and 55 sacks respectively.

Bears' quarterback Jay Cutler was sacked nine times in four quarters this preseason, further illustrating the issue.

An advance scout recently analyzed the Bears' offensive line.

''They're not a complete disaster, but you can't play those two tackles [Williams and Omiyale] and expect not to be exposed. I don't think anybody will tell you Chris Williams fits the mold of a left tackle. He'd be a right tackle on a lot of teams from a pass-protection standpoint. The other guy [Omiyale] doesn't have the range or reach. Against 3-4 teams, they'll be OK to some extent. They'll have problems with four-down teams when those defensive ends are matched up on them and they have to defend power and speed. I don't think that's a good match up.''

The Lions play a 4-3 defense.

Detroit's pass rush was below average last season, but Chicago's offensive line also had fewer concerns. Lions' rookie tackle Ndomukong Suh promises to cause the Bears plenty of headaches, as will the dependability of their offensive tackles.

A pair of poor secondaries suggest that this will be a mistake-heavy shootout. Too many signs, though, point to Detroit at least keeping it close.

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